한국 Travels: #3

It turns out that my room mate is working for a company that deals with North Korea on a regular basis, advising them of "approaches" or "policies" to improve their situation.  We had a fascinating talk about the future of the peninsula and what it means for unification.  He also had a German background so it was also interesting to compare the possible unification in Korea vs the unification that happened in Germany.

Some interesting points:
1. The population split in S Korea vs N Korea is 50m vs 25m.  In comparison, the split of W Germany vs E Germany in 1989 was around (?) 70m vs 16m.  So the economic hit that S Korea would take to bring N Korea up to par would be a massive cost.

2. With that kind of shift in populations, then do you allow N Korea parties to participate in elections?   That was something I had just considered during that talk.

3. There is an active black market for the transfer of goods.  The problem is that with all the internal spying that occurs, one doesn't know whom to trust.  So two people doing exactly the same things might either get money or get thrown in jail.  Super tough to live in that environment.

4. It is China that is keeping country going, but it wants the country to be stable.  N Koreans are doing their own thing which is causing its own instability, which may lead at some point to China just saying "no more".  If that time comes, then we really may have a refugee crisis.

5. The desire for change will not come from outside, but from inside N Korea.  It is with all that black market trade that information comes into the country.  People get to see what is in the outside world and at some point in time, enough people will say "hey, this ideology doesn't work anymore, why am I sacrificing so much?" or the other extreme things get so bad that people won't care what the consequences will be.  There was an incident in 2009 when N Korea changed its currency, leaving everyone basically broke.  There was a lot of resentment of the government for that action so if something similar happens again it could be the reason for a mass movement.

6. With reunification, there is a massive need for infrastructure investment.  This could be a great opportunity for construction and infrastructure companies in S Korea.  For sure the government will subsidise the rebuilding.

7. There are significant mineral deposits in N Korea that can be mined.  I think the Chinese are doing that already.

8. Access to tourist areas in N Korea is not that off limits.  Might be worth a trip to go there.  Have to go through Beijing though but definitely possible.  Also there are some Singapore organisations e.g. Chosun Exchange that does work in educating the people on how to start businesses.  Might be worth exploring when I get back to Singapore.  Assuming my Korean improves haha

9. In terms of business, most males are allocated jobs in specific industries and sectors.  So they have to be there for certain hours.  It is actually the females of the family that have the ability to trade and develop a side business.  Actually it is what Chosun Exchange focusses on.

Very enlightening talks.